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Rule 5: Don’t take money out of your supporter’s pockets to make the people’s lives better. The flip side of rule 4 is not to be too cheap toward your coalition of supporters. If you’re good to the people at the expense of your coalition, it won’t be long until your “friends” will be gunning for you. Effective policy for the masses doesn’t necessarily produce loyalty among essentials, and it’s darn expensive to boot. Hungry people are not likely to have the energy to overthrow you, so don’t worry about them. Disappointed coalition members, in contrast, can defect, leaving you in deep trouble.
etc.

The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics - by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith.

http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs13/The_Dictators_Handbook.pdf